The global copper market has taken a sharp downward turn as rising trade tensions between the United States and China send shockwaves through commodity markets.

After reaching record highs in late March, copper prices have reversed course dramatically. Spot prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) soared to an all-time high of $5.277 per pound on March 26, as suppliers rushed shipments to the U.S. ahead of widely anticipated import tariffs.

That rally, however, proved short-lived.

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new trade measures, including a 10% universal tariff on all imports and sharply higher duties on key trading partners—54% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union exports, and 24% on imports from Japan. In response, China retaliated with a 34% blanket tariff on all U.S. goods, effective April 10.

The announcement triggered an immediate sell-off across base metals. Copper prices tumbled nearly 4% on April 3, and losses deepened the following day as investors digested the potential fallout from a full-blown trade war. COMEX copper futures for May delivery plunged over 7% on April 4, falling to $4.478 per pound in one of the sharpest single-day drops in recent memory.

“This is a clear signal that the market is pricing in slower global growth and significant disruption to industrial demand,” said analysts at Citi Research, who revised their short-term copper price forecast down to $8,000 per metric ton.

In Chile—the world’s largest copper producer—officials have taken note. The country’s state copper commission, Cochilco, announced plans to revise its 2025 average price estimate from $4.25 to a more cautious range of $3.90 to $4.00 per pound, citing the growing threat of global economic deceleration.

“Copper prices have likely peaked for the year,” said a Cochilco spokesperson. “The uncertainty created by the U.S.-China trade conflict is weighing heavily on market sentiment.”

Despite the near-term volatility, some analysts remain optimistic about copper’s long-term prospects, citing strong structural demand from green energy technologies and electric vehicle production. But in the current environment, few are willing to call a bottom.

Navigating the Volatility with Pillar

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Pillar seamlessly structured, executed, and managed their hedges without any manual work or spreadsheets involved, ensuring its customers had peace of mind and remained compliant. As a result, these customers were shielded from the sudden price drops and greatly improved margin stability.

As global markets remain on edge, Pillar is proving essential for small and mid-sized firms looking to navigate commodity risk without the need for a dedicated trading desk or consulting relationships.