The oil market has been on a rollercoaster. In just two weeks, prices plunged and snapped back with unusual force - first triggered by President Trump’s sweeping 'Liberation Day' tariffs and then reversed by newly announced U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

At the peak of panic last week, WTI crude dropped below $56 per barrel, its lowest level since early January. Traders were bracing for a trade war-induced demand shock. But this week, the reimposition of sanctions on Iran sparked fears of tightened global supply, pushing prices back above $64. The whiplash highlights just how sensitive oil markets are to geopolitical and policy risk.

What’s Driving the Volatility?

• Liberation Day Tariffs: A 10% blanket tariff on global imports - and a massive 125% tariff on Chinese goods - rattled global demand expectations. With fears of slower industrial activity and shipping volume, oil prices cratered as traders priced in reduced consumption.

• Iran Sanctions: Just days later, the U.S. reinstated full sanctions on Iranian oil exports, threatening to pull as much as 1 million barrels per day off global markets. That sent prices sharply higher, compressing the timeline for buyers and refiners to react.

• Currency & Rate Risk: The dollar has weakened on expectations of Fed rate cuts following a soft CPI print (2.4%), further amplifying oil price swings. With crude priced in USD, every currency move impacts global buying power.

Why This Matters for You

Whether you're a fuel-intensive operator, a plastics or chemicals manufacturer, or a refined products trader, these price swings aren’t just headline noise—they directly impact your input costs and margins:

• Airlines and logistics providers saw jet fuel and diesel swing 12–18% in just 10 trading sessions.

• Petrochemical and plastics firms faced input cost uncertainty on core petroleum-derived feedstocks like naphtha and propylene.

• Refiners and traders were caught between compressed crack spreads and volatile benchmark differentials.

This is exactly the type of environment where smart hedging turns volatility into an advantage.

Hedge Smart. Hedge Now. Use Pillar.

At Pillar, we help energy buyers, users, and traders take control of risk - before it controls them. Our platform offers:

• Real-time visibility into fuel, feedstock, and refined product exposures

• Alerts on geopolitical risk and price thresholds

• Strategy templates for locking in forward prices at favorable levels

• Seamless execution and tracking of energy hedges

Hedging isn’t just about defense. Right now, it’s a strategic tool to protect margins, lock in cost advantages, and gain certainty amid chaos.

Bottom Line:

We’ve just witnessed a 15%+ roundtrip in oil prices in under two weeks. That kind of volatility doesn’t wait for your next board meeting. With Pillar, you can act decisively - hedging smarter, faster, and with real context.

Use the moment. Lock in certainty. And turn volatility into leverage.